{"id":3388,"date":"2025-02-17T16:01:01","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T16:01:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/17\/is-chinas-military-really-built-for-war-new-report-questions-beijings-arms-buildup\/"},"modified":"2025-02-17T16:01:01","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T16:01:01","slug":"is-chinas-military-really-built-for-war-new-report-questions-beijings-arms-buildup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/17\/is-chinas-military-really-built-for-war-new-report-questions-beijings-arms-buildup\/","title":{"rendered":"Is China\u2019s military really built for war? New report questions Beijing\u2019s arms buildup"},"content":{"rendered":"

China is not ready for war, according to a contentious <\/em>report from a US think tank, which claims the main motivation for the ruling Communist Party\u2019s expansive push for military modernization is to retain its grip on power \u2013 not fight an overseas foe. <\/p>\n

Beijing has pursued a head-turning military buildup under Chinese leader Xi Jinping, during which the People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) \u2013 previously not even one of the strongest in Asia \u2013 has started to rival, or in some categories surpass, the US military in analysts\u2019 estimations. <\/p>\n

Simulations by US defense experts have repeatedly shown the US \u2013 widely regarded as the world\u2019s strongest military \u2013 having a tough time matching the PLA in a fight close to China\u2019s shores, especially over the democratic island of Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing. <\/p>\n

But a report released last month by the Washington-based RAND Corp. said that despite the impressive buildup, political considerations \u2013 importantly the Communist Party\u2019s desire for control over both military personnel and Chinese society \u2013 could hamper the PLA in battle, especially against a peer adversary such as the US. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe PLA remains fundamentally focused on upholding Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule rather than preparing for war,\u201d wrote Timothy Heath, a longtime China expert with RAND, in the report, titled \u201cThe Chinese military\u2019s doubtful combat readiness.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cChina\u2019s military modernization gains are designed first and foremost to bolster the appeal and credibility of CCP rule,\u201d making war unlikely, Heath added. <\/p>\n

One example Heath cited of political considerations butting up against military objectives is the PLA spending up to 40% of training time on political topics. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe trade-off in time that could be spent mastering the essential skills for combat operations further raises questions as to how well prepared the PLA might be for modern war,\u201d Heath said. <\/p>\n

Heath noted too that PLA units are led not only by commanding officers, but also by political commissars who focus on party loyalty rather than combat effectiveness. <\/p>\n

\u201cA divided command system \u2026 reduces the ability of commanders to respond flexibly and rapidly to emerging situations,\u201d he wrote. <\/p>\n

A conventional war between the US and China is a \u201cremote possibility,\u201d and Pentagon planners should focus on a wider variety of Chinese threats than missiles and bombs, he added. <\/p>\n

But other experts scoffed at his conclusions, saying that Xi had made his top military goal clear: bringing Taiwan under Beijing\u2019s control, by force if necessary. <\/p>\n

The PLA\u2019s buildup points to China being ready to do that, domestic control concerns notwithstanding, the experts added. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere are much easier, cheaper, lower-risk ways to maximize party security than the bespoke warfighting capabilities Xi concertedly pursues,\u201d said Andrew Erickson, professor of strategy at the US Naval War College. <\/p>\n

John Culver, a former US intelligence officer for East Asia, also cast doubt on the report. <\/p>\n

\u201cWar isn\u2019t Plan A, but it is Plan B if events require and the material capacity of the PLA and China for such an event is strong and getter stronger,\u201d he wrote on X. <\/p>\n

Weapons and will<\/h2>\n

China has achieved rapid and indisputable military progress since Xi introduced sweeping reforms a decade ago. <\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s intense shipbuilding program of recent years has yielded the world\u2019s largest navy\/maritime fighting force, which can operate farther than ever from China\u2019s shores \u2013 including from the country\u2019s first overseas military base in Djibouti. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, China has made advances in stealth aircraft and hypersonic weapons \u2013 and turned vast areas of its inland deserts into fields of missile silos. <\/p>\n

But Heath questioned whether Beijing\u2019s new arsenal would be effective in war. <\/p>\n

\u201cHistory has shown repeatedly that militaries sometimes fail to effectively use their advanced armaments in battle,\u201d his report read, citing the war in Ukraine as the latest conflict where a better-armed military has failed to prevail. <\/p>\n

Critics of Heath\u2019s report said it\u2019s folly to see the same weaknesses in the PLA. <\/p>\n

\u201cXi repeatedly engages in difficult military restructuring efforts that prioritize improvements in realistic warfighting capabilities and impose some of the most demanding requirements conceivable on China\u2019s armed forces,\u201d said Erickson of the US Naval War College. <\/p>\n

He noted that China is building both numbers \u2013 the Pentagon estimates Beijing is growing its nuclear warhead arsenal by about 100 a year \u2013 and technology, \u201cpushing global frontiers with ambitious hypersonic weapons megaprojects.\u201d <\/p>\n

The human factor<\/h2>\n

Few doubt that the PLA has made great strides in both the number and quality of weapons it can field. Take for example its warships, led by the Type 055 destroyer, classified by many analysts as the most powerful surface combatant in the world. <\/p>\n

The PLA Navy launched its 10th Type 055 last year, with as many as six more expected in the coming years. Each requires a crew of about 300 sailors. <\/p>\n

Collin Koh, research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said building the high-tech warships may be easier than crewing them \u2013 because modern warships need young sailors to take on complex tasks, and that requires extensive training. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe army could likely assimilate someone from the countryside \u2026 who might not get a lot of education \u2026 and train him up to be an infantryman. But if you want to train somebody who is able to (repair) the controls in the combat information center in the warship, fire a missile and to maintain a missile, that requires a bit more,\u201d Koh said. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the PLA continues to struggle another personnel problem \u2013 corruption. A Pentagon report from December said a widespread anticorruption campaign within the senior levels of the Chinese military and government is impeding Xi\u2019s defense buildup. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think they\u2019ve identified it as something that really has posed great risks to the political reliability and ultimately the operational capability of the PLA,\u201d a senior US defense official said in December. <\/p>\n

Defining Chinese military readiness<\/h2>\n

When analysts talk about Chinese military readiness, focus quickly zooms in on Taiwan. US intelligence estimates say Xi has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade the island by 2027, if necessary. <\/p>\n

But Heath argues that while the Chinese leader set that goal, he and other top party officials have not engaged in any concerted push to prepare the Chinese public for combat. <\/p>\n

\u201cChinese leaders have made no speeches that glorify war, advocate for war, or otherwise characterize war as inevitable or desirable,\u201d Heath wrote, noting that \u201cChina\u2019s military has not even published a study on how it might occupy and control Taiwan.\u201d <\/p>\n

Others caution against judging Beijing\u2019s intentions based on Western thinking. It\u2019s unknown what Xi would consider a win in Taiwan, they say. <\/p>\n

The amount of pain the PLA \u2013 and Chinese society as a whole \u2013 could sustain to take the island is known only in Beijing, they say. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to consider the use of force by Beijing at a level that could be potentially calibrated to suit its political needs,\u201d Koh said. <\/p>\n

That force could be a blockade to strangle the island without shots being fired. It could be enough airstrikes to show Taipei and its supporters that China holds the upper hand in any cross-strait conflict. It could be a full-scale invasion and occupation. <\/p>\n

Or it could be a continuation of Beijing\u2019s relentless political pressure accompanied by the almost constant PLA presence around Taiwan, including dozens of warplanes and ships. It\u2019s a policy that, to date, has served the Communist Party well, some analysts say. <\/p>\n

So, why spend all that money on new weapons? <\/p>\n

\u201cChina\u2019s military modernization gains are not designed to conquer Taiwan through military attack. Instead, (they are) designed to help the PLA more effectively carry out its longstanding mission of upholding CCP rule,\u201d Heath wrote. <\/p>\n

Essentially, new warships and stealth fighter jets impress the public, and that makes controlling society easier, he said. <\/p>\n

Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore agreed with that point. \u201cPolitics being primary means propaganda is more important than the military outcome,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

But Koh said the PLA\u2019s gains under Xi cannot be brushed aside as merely sending a domestic message. <\/p>\n

\u201cDespite those known issues within China and the PLA, I don\u2019t think any military planner in the region is going to just dismiss the PLA as a paper tiger,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

And Thompson said the PLA is indeed a capable foe for Taiwan and for the US. <\/p>\n

\u201cChina could start a war and fight it. Could they win? How do you define victory?\u201d Thompson asked. <\/p>\n

\u201cIs it a zero sum or just a series of tradeoffs?\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n

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China is not ready for war, according to a contentious report from a US think tank, which claims the main motivation for the ruling Communist Party\u2019s expansive push for military modernization is to retain its grip on power \u2013 not fight an overseas foe. Beijing has pursued a head-turning military buildup under Chinese leader Xi…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3389,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}