US President Donald Trump\u2019s push to end the war in Ukraine appears poised to hand key concessions to Russia, leaving Kyiv and its European supporters on the sidelines as they face the prospect of a peace deal made over their heads. <\/p>\n
But they aren\u2019t the only major players grappling with the fallout of Trump\u2019s pivot to Russia that has upended years of US foreign policy in a burst of rapid-fire diplomacy. <\/p>\n
In Beijing, too, the breakneck turn of events is seen to be raising questions about how the US peace drive will impact Chinese leader Xi Jinping\u2019s carefully wrought partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin \u2013 and China\u2019s precarious relations with the Trump administration. <\/p>\n
Just weeks ago, China appeared set for a key role in Trump\u2019s Ukraine peace efforts. The US leader had repeatedly suggested he could work with Xi, using China\u2019s economic sway over Russia to help end the conflict \u2013 important leverage for Beijing as it aims to avert a trade war with the world\u2019s largest economy. <\/p>\n
That would have aligned with Beijing\u2019s longstanding efforts to present itself as a neutral party and voice of the Global South that is ready to broker peace in the grinding conflict \u2013 even as NATO accused it of supplying Moscow\u2019s defense industry with dual-use goods. China defends its \u201cnormal trade.\u201d <\/p>\n
Now, Beijing finds itself neither involved in the negotiations as a Russian ally nor a voice of global gravitas \u2013 so far, at least, left on the outside of the swift developments that observers say have surprised Chinese officials \u2013 and sent them scrambling to find an upside. <\/p>\n
The stakes are high for Xi, who for years has assiduously cultivated both a personal bond with his \u201cold friend\u201d Putin and his country\u2019s relations with Russia \u2013 seeing his northern neighbor as a pivotal partner in a larger power struggle with the West. <\/p>\n
The Chinese leader took a calculated risk as Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border three years ago. His choice not to condemn that invasion and have his country serve as Putin\u2019s lifeline \u2013 lapping up Russian oil and supplying Moscow with key goods \u2013 lost Beijing the trust of Europe and galvanized American allies in Asia to work more closely with NATO. <\/p>\n
Chinese officials in recent days have voiced approval of the \u201cagreement\u201d between the US and Russia to start peace talks. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina supports all efforts conducive to peace talks,\u201d top diplomat Wang Yi said at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council Tuesday, the same day top Russian and US officials met in Saudi Arabia to lay the groundwork for negotiations on ending the fighting in Ukraine. <\/p>\n
But comments from American officials in recent days are likely to have drawn attention from Beijing to potential underlying US objectives as it works with Russia. <\/p>\n
Top US diplomat Marco Rubio named the possibility for future \u201cgeopolitical and economic cooperation\u201d between Washington and Moscow as among four key points discussed in Riyadh. <\/p>\n
Days earlier, the Trump administration\u2019s Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg told a panel discussion in Munich that the US hoped \u201cto force\u201d Putin into actions he was \u201cuncomfortable with,\u201d which could include disrupting Russia\u2019s alliances with Iran, North Korea \u2013 and China. <\/p>\n
Observers are skeptical that Washington could shatter the Russia-China relationship, given their deep alignment against the US-led order and Moscow\u2019s entrenched economic dependence on Beijing. <\/p>\n
But any worries that may be playing out in China about whether Trump \u2013 a leader who\u2019s repeatedly professed his admiration for both Putin and Xi \u2013 could unwind their bond is likely underscored by the echoes of past mistrust between the neighbors. <\/p>\n
Bitter territorial disputes along their lengthy shared border erupted in conflict between Soviet Russia and a young People\u2019s Republic of China in 1969 and were only largely resolved in the 1990s. <\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s the diplomatic coup engineered by President Richard Nixon and his adviser Henry Kissinger, who exploited a split between the Communist-ruled neighbors to establish relations with Beijing and swing the Cold War balance of power in the US\u2019 favor. <\/p>\n
Though that history is unlikely to be repeated, observers say even a hint of a new shift in allegiances is a boon for Washington\u2019s goals. <\/p>\n
\u201cEven if it\u2019s just 30% of a \u2018reverse Nixon\u2019 \u2026 that\u2019s going to sow the seeds of doubt,\u201d said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. <\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s going to make Xi Jinping question the strategic alignment that (he spent) the past 12 years to build with Russia \u2013 \u2018maybe it\u2019s not that dependable, maybe it\u2019s not so solid.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n
If a day comes that China decides to invade Taiwan then, \u201cthe Chinese will have to look at their back and wonder \u2013 what is Russia going to do?\u201d she added, referring to the self-ruling democratic island Beijing claims. \u201cAnd for the United States, that\u2019s deterrence.\u201d <\/p>\n
But others say Beijing may have greater confidence in its ties with Moscow. <\/p>\n
\u201cChinese and Russian relations are in a league of their own, they have a strong basis and strong institutional connections in the past decades,\u201d said Yu Bin, a senior fellow at the Russian Studies Center of the East China Normal University in Shanghai. <\/p>\n
Yu pointed to the two countries\u2019 efforts to push for multilateralism and build out their own international organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as the need to maintain their own border stability. \u201cI don\u2019t think either side would let that go because Trump is there for four years,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Instead, China is worried \u201cthat once Russia and the US patch up their differences and achieve some degree of peace in Ukraine, that would free the Trump administration to turn its focus to China,\u201d Yu said. <\/p>\n
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth signaled as much last week, when he told European counterparts the US can\u2019t focus primarily on security on their continent when it must prioritize \u201cdeterring war with China.\u201d <\/p>\n
Had Trump been unable to engage Putin directly, Beijing may have tried to ease some frictions with the US by working with Washington on bringing the Russian leader to the table \u2013 but now it\u2019s unclear whether China will take any role in future Ukraine peace negotiations. <\/p>\n
However, observers say that if an accord is reached, Beijing could send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine via the United Nations and would be keen to play a role in the country\u2019s reconstruction. <\/p>\n
For now, Chinese officials have used a flurry of diplomacy in recent days to try and win back love lost with Europe \u2013 calling in public statements for \u201call relevant parties and stakeholders involved in the Ukraine crisis\u201d to \u201cengage in the peace talks process,\u201d in a nod to Europe\u2019s right to a seat at the table. <\/p>\n
At the same time, they\u2019ve also looked to play up their potential to take a role, while implying that Trump\u2019s apparent turn to Putin proves Beijing\u2019s stance was correct all along. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Ukraine, has raised the prospect that it could try and recruit China as its own ally. <\/p>\n
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has received little attention from Beijing since the start of the war, suggested as much following a Saturday meeting between top Chinese diplomat Wang and Ukrainian officials in Germany. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt is important for us to engage China to help put pressure on Putin to end the war. We are seeing, I think, for the first time, China\u2019s interest,\u201d Zelensky told a news conference Tuesday. \u201cThis is mostly due to the fact that all the processes are now accelerating.\u201d <\/p>\n
As to who should be at the negotiating table, the Ukrainian leader added it should be countries \u201cready to take responsibility for guaranteeing security, providing assistance, stopping Putin, and investing in Ukraine\u2019s recovery.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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US President Donald Trump\u2019s push to end the war in Ukraine appears poised to hand key concessions to Russia, leaving Kyiv and its European supporters on the sidelines as they face the prospect of a peace deal made over their heads. But they aren\u2019t the only major players grappling with the fallout of Trump\u2019s pivot…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3513,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3512"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3512\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3513"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/republicanstradetoday.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}