Phill Magakoe\/AFP\/Getty Images\/File<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The absence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meant no high-ranking US diplomat was there to present an American counterpoint to a gathering of countries that make up 80% of the global population and three-quarters of international trade. <\/p>\n
On the surface, this shift has the potential to accelerate China\u2019s ascent as a global power, potentially granting the world\u2019s second-largest economy space to win more allies, boost its global leadership and shift global norms and rules \u2013 such as those on human rights or security \u2013 in its favor. <\/p>\n
But countries from Europe to Asia are well aware of the wide gap between Beijing\u2019s benign rhetoric and its behavior as it flouts a major international ruling to harass Philippine vessels in the South China Sea or intimidates Taiwan \u2013 the self-ruling democracy Bejing claims. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signaled it wants to shift attention from other global conflicts to focus on its rivalry with China. And Beijing will face that and potential fresh US tariffs on its goods as it tries to revive a weak economy \u2013 limiting how much it can pour into expanding global influence. <\/p>\n
But even still, there are signs that China may see potential for those headwinds to just be some turbulence in a rise made easier by Trump\u2019s policies. <\/p>\n
\u201cTrump 2.0 era will undoubtedly weaken the US\u2019 leadership in international affairs,\u201d an analysis published this month on the website of Shanghai-based think tank Fudan Development Institute said. <\/p>\n
\u201cAs other countries, particularly the European Union and China, actively respond, the power vacuum left by the US withdrawal may be filled by them \u2026 With the US no longer able to dominate global issues as it once did, a new global governance structure may emerge,\u201d it said. <\/p>\n
As Trump dismantles the US foreign aid sector \u2013 freezing funding to global education, health and development programs \u2013 some English-language arms of Chinese state media released scathing critiques of such assistance. <\/p>\n
Foreign aid is \u201cviewed by the US as a tool to maintain its hegemonic position and engage in geopolitical maneuvering,\u201d nationalist tabloid the Global Times said in an article on USAID, an agency Beijing has long seen as a thorn in its side, accusing of sparking democratic \u201ccolor revolutions\u201d and indoctrinating US proxies across the world. USAID, which was founded during the Cold War, has long played a key role in advancing American soft power and democratic ideals. <\/p>\n
Beijing, however, wasn\u2019t looking at Washington\u2019s aid freeze as an opportunity because \u2013 unlike the US \u2013 China treats \u201cother nations with sincerity, fairness, and selflessness,\u201d an editorial by the state-run outlet claimed. <\/p>\n
There has been some indication China will take targeted steps to ramp up its support in regions it sees as strategically important in the wake of the US freeze \u2013 a move that would align with what experts have seen as a <\/strong>soft-power struggle between the two countries in recent decades. <\/p>\n In Cambodia, for example, Beijing released $4.4 million for demining operations, as US-backed landmine removal programs were halted in eight provinces, the Associated Press reported, citing the Cambodian Mine Action Center. <\/p>\n
Overall, however, experts say there\u2019s little chance that Beijing would be able or willing to step up to fill the US aid void. <\/p>\n
China is a huge player in global development, funneling more than a trillion dollars into overseas projects between 2000 and 2021. But unlike the US, data show the vast majority of Beijing\u2019s development spending is not direct aid, but loans and other financing. <\/p>\n
And economic belt-tightening has seen Beijing move away from big-ticket commitments, like building railroads and power plants under Xi\u2019s signature Belt and Road overseas infrastructure drive, paring back to more modest projects in recent years. <\/p>\n
\u201cTrump is giving China some opportunity \u2013 but China might not be able to pick up this US gift,\u201d said Shanghai-based foreign affairs analyst Shen Dingli. \u201cDue to our gloomy economy and the (downsized) version of Belt and Road \u2026 we have less money to buy loyalty.\u201d <\/p>\n
Even still, China may look to capitalize on countries\u2019 uncertainty about the US to expand its trade and security ties, as well as access to critical minerals, observers say. And countries may take uncertainty in US relations \u2013 from the aid freeze to Trump\u2019s tariff threats \u2013 into calculations for dealing with the world\u2019s two largest economies. <\/p>\n
\u201cBeijing can send the message to the rest of the world \u2026 that the US is fundamentally going to be unreliable,\u201d said Manoj Kewalramani, who heads Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution research center in the Indian city of Bengaluru. \u201cWhy would you want to pick a fight with Beijing now?\u201d <\/p>\n
There are already signs of concern from some parts about Beijing\u2019s potential gains from a Trump-era <\/strong>pullback of US assistance. <\/p>\n In an open letter to Trump posted on social platform X, Nepalese lawmaker Rajendra Bajgain last week warned that a \u201cvacuum created by reduced American involvement will inevitably be filled by other powers that do not share the values of democracy and free enterprise.\u201d <\/p>\n
Two major US-funded infrastructure projects as well as other initiatives in Nepal have been put on hold following the US aid freeze, Reuters reported. <\/p>\n
China\u2019s aid \u201caligns with the needs of recipient countries for socio-economic development and the improvement of people\u2019s livelihoods,\u201d it said. <\/p>\n
\u2018Checked and balanced\u2019<\/h2>\n
But even as some of Trump\u2019s moves so far have created potential openings for Beijing, there\u2019s also the hanging question of how his administration may ultimately calibrate its aid and foreign policy \u2013 and its rivalry with China. <\/p>\n
When asked this month if the foreign aid shake-up was giving China and Russia an opportunity to expand their influence, national security adviser Mike Waltz told NBC\u2019s \u201cMeet the Press\u201d that \u201call too often these missions and these programs, number one, are not in line with strategic US interests like pushing back on China.\u201d <\/p>\n
And speaking to European counterparts earlier this month, US defense chief Pete Hegseth warned that the US could no longer be \u201cprimarily focused on the security of Europe.\u201d Instead, the US is \u201cprioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
There have also been signs of Trump\u2019s brash diplomacy working against Beijing\u2019s benefit. <\/p>\n
Panama, the first country in Latin America to sign onto China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative, announced it would pull out of the scheme after Trump repeatedly threatened to \u201ctake back\u201d the Panama Canal, falsely claiming Panama had ceded its operations to China. <\/p>\n
And in Europe, even as Trump officials lambasted European and NATO counterparts earlier this month and warmed to Russia, US allies there appeared galvanized, rather than dissuaded, to bolster NATO with more spending. That pivot will also mean Beijing is watching closely whether Washington is able to peel away its close ally Moscow, as the White House has signaled it may hope to do. <\/p>\n
Even still, Beijing will likely see the time as right to put more focus on repairing strained relations with Europe \u2013 a potential opening that could widen if Trump slaps tariffs on European goods. <\/p>\n
Trump has also so far not shaken US alliances in Asia, as Beijing may have hoped. And it\u2019s not clear that \u201cAmerica First\u201d will leave a security void in Asia or weaken the US alliance system there. <\/p>\n