This week\u2019s clashes between Pakistan and India are the most serious escalation in tensions between these two historic foes in decades with millions on both sides of their border now wondering what might come next. <\/p>\n
Despite a vow to \u201cavenge\u201d India\u2019s strikes on its territory, Pakistan has yet to retaliate in kind on India, and both sides appear to have already claimed victory. But hostilities continue. <\/p>\n
Palpable panic rocked both nations Wednesday after New Delhi launched targeted military strikes on its neighbor, while Islamabad claimed it had shot down its rival\u2019s fighter jets. <\/p>\n
The fear is that each additional confrontational step by either side could quickly spiral into an all out conflict. <\/p>\n
Indian media was euphoric after Wednesday\u2019s strikes. \u201cStrokes of justice,\u201d ran an editorial from one of India\u2019s leading English newspapers commending the country\u2019s \u201csharp\u201d and \u201cresolute\u201d response to the massacre of 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir, at the hands of militants. A headline from The Indian Express echoed a similar tune: \u201cJustice Served\u201d it said across the front page. <\/p>\n
In Pakistan, the public response from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was similarly bellicose. <\/p>\n
He has vowed to \u201cavenge\u201d the deaths of 31 people Pakistan says were killed in India\u2019s strikes but still appeared to declare triumph for its apparent shooting of India\u2019s airplanes. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt only took a few hours for the enemy to fall on its knees,\u201d he said in a late-night address to the nation. <\/p>\n
India says it struck \u201cterrorist infrastructure\u201d belonging to two Islamist groups \u2013 Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed \u2013 who have been accused of being behind some the deadliest militant attacks on the country. Wednesday\u2019s strikes did not target military infrastructure and didn\u2019t kill civilians, New Delhi said, potentially giving India and Pakistan an opportunity to find a way to avoid an all-out war. <\/p>\n
One location India struck was deep in Pakistan\u2019s Punjab province, the deepest attack in Pakistan\u2019s undisputed territory since both countries fought a major war in 1971. It also targeted multiple other locations in Punjab \u2013 the heartland of the powerful military and home of the Sharif government \u2013 and hit a mosque, according to Pakistani officials, angering millions in the Muslim-majority nation. <\/p>\n
What happens now, analysts say, mostly depends on Islamabad\u2019s next move. <\/p>\n
\u201cAll eyes are on Pakistan,\u201d said Washington-based South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman. \u201cIf it decides to save face and claim victory \u2014 perhaps by pointing to the downing of Indian jets (which New Delhi has not confirmed) \u2014 and call it a day, an off ramp could be in sight.\u201d <\/p>\n
But he warned \u201call bets would be off\u201d should Pakistan decide to strike back. <\/p>\n
Most analysts agree the nuclear-armed neighbors cannot afford another battle. <\/p>\n
India and Pakistan have already fought three wars over Kashmir, a contested region they both claim in its entirety and each control a part of. Another conflict could have catastrophic consequences. <\/p>\n
Since its birth seven decades ago in the partition of what was British India, Pakistan \u2013 now home to 230 million people \u2013 has faced mounting challenges, from political instability to an alarming militant insurgency, climate catastrophes and economic disarray. <\/p>\n
India is seemingly in a stronger position; its military is seen as superior in any conventional conflict based on number alone and it boasts an economy more than 10 times the size of Pakistan\u2019s. But it too would have something to lose should the conflict escalate, according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. <\/p>\n
\u201cLargely on the basis of what we\u2019ve seen in previous times, these are two rational actors who don\u2019t want a broader war,\u201d Madan said. <\/p>\n
India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to elevate India\u2019s status on the global stage, bidding to host the Olympics and seeking to overtake China as the world\u2019s manufacturing hub. <\/p>\n
Not to mention, India already faces security threats on multiple fronts \u2014 particularly along contested borders with China. <\/p>\n
India was quick to project that its response to the April 22 massacre was \u201cfocused, measured and non-escalatory\u201d and make clear that they were in response to the tourist\u2019s massacre. <\/p>\n
Top officials in New Delhi reached out to key counterparts in the United States, Middle East and Russia, among others, \u201cpresumably to encourage international pressure for Pakistan to avoid escalation,\u201d said Nisha Biswal, Senior Advisor at The Asia Group. <\/p>\n
Pakistan\u2019s leaders touted a victory by the country\u2019s air force, saying five Indian fighter jets were shot down during an hour-long battle fought at ranges over 160 kilometers (100 miles). <\/p>\n
India\u2019s leaders have said little in response to those claims and have not acknowledged any aircraft losses. The Pakistanis have yet to show any evidence proving they downed fighter jets, but a French Defense Ministry source said at least one of India\u2019s newest and most-advanced warplanes \u2013 a French-made Rafale fighter jet \u2013 was lost in the battle. <\/p>\n
If there have indeed been losses for India, Pakistan could claim victory \u201ceven if the circumstances are murky,\u201d said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis would allow Pakistan to claim it has imposed costs on Indian military targets.\u201d <\/p>\n
Yet, amid the fog of war, Pakistan\u2019s powerful army general Asim Munir had already vowed to match any aggression from India. <\/p>\n
And Munir, who is known for his hardline stance on Hindu-nationalist Modi, has a reputation of being more assertive than his predecessor Qamar Javed Bajwa. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile there have been many voices within Modi\u2019s Hindu nationalist party pushing for a decisive blow against Pakistan for years. <\/p>\n
Kugelman, the South Asia analyst, said the US, which has historically interceded in these crises, could try to defuse the tension, but it\u2019s unclear how much bandwidth the Trump administration is willing to allocate. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina has called for de-escalation, but its fraught ties with India rule it out as a viable intermediary. The top mediator candidates are the Arab Gulf states, especially Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates,\u201d he said, given their strong ties with both nations. <\/p>\n
Qatar was quick to urge diplomacy in the hours after Wednesday\u2019s strikes. <\/p>\n
While most analysts think there is an off-ramp for both nations, they all agree the situation remains fluid and tense. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis crisis is as unpredictable as it is dangerous\u2014an unsettling combination,\u201d Kugelman added. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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