Since Israel began its concerted attack on Iran on Friday, calls for regime change in Iran have grown louder \u2013 from hawks in the United States Congress to Israeli officials and some Iranian activists abroad. <\/p>\n
They argue that the Islamic Republic is significantly weakened, and that now is the time to capitalize on domestic unrest and public discontent to bring about the overthrow of its ruling clerical establishment, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at its head. <\/p>\n
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that Israel\u2019s operation \u201ccould certainly\u201d result in regime change, as the government in Iran is \u201cvery weak.\u201d He claimed that \u201c80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cThey shoot women because their hair is uncovered. They shoot students. They just suck the oxygen out from these brave and gifted people, the Iranian people,\u201d Netanyahu said. \u201cThe decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people.\u201d <\/p>\n
Freedom of speech is heavily restricted in Iran, and there have been no major public calls from within the country to overthrow the regime following Israel\u2019s attacks. But experts say Netanyahu may be misreading Iranian public sentiment \u2013 and that the strikes could backfire. <\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s attacks are more likely to direct public anger toward Israel, as domestic issues are briefly put aside while Iranians run for shelter, experts say. <\/p>\n
Iran has in recent years seen nationwide protests against the regime, especially in 2022 and 2023, sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested by Iran\u2019s morality police for allegedly not wearing her headscarf properly. Many activists have since been detained, and authorities have sought repress further protest, instilling fear with a rise in criminal prosecutions and executions. Disgruntlement is widespread. <\/p>\n
But experts, and Iranians currently living under Israeli bombardment, said that most Iranians don\u2019t see Netanyahu or his government as having the solution to their domestic problems. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe people of Iran have fought against the Islamic Republic for years, striving for democracy and freedom,\u201d the journalist said from Tehran. \u201cBut I believe that in the current situation, those who are terrified under missiles and explosions, trying to protect their children and loved ones, do not have the psychological or practical capacity to \u2018take to the streets.\u2019 The streets, which are constantly under attack, are now emptier than ever.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cMoreover, from the public\u2019s perspective, the Islamic Republic has not yet become weak enough to collapse through protests. Any action against the regime during wartime will lead to brutal repression,\u201d the journalist said, adding that \u201cnow the regime has free rein to label anyone it wants as an Israeli spy.\u201d <\/p>\n
Others say during a time of national crisis, people are more likely to favor unity, no matter how dissatisfied they are. To them, foreign intervention is a red line. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere is no support that they will give to Netanyahu\u2019s war on themselves and their society. If anything, they are organizing now to help each other defend their country,\u201d Azizi said, referring to anti-regime Iranians. \u201cAny idea that this will lead to a popular uprising of some sort that will bring down the regime has very little basis in reality.\u201d <\/p>\n
Even in the diaspora, where many anti-regime Iranians live, there is anger at Israel\u2019s actions, with activists calling for unity in the face of Israel\u2019s assault. <\/p>\n
Narges Mohammadi, one of Iran\u2019s most prominent human rights activists and 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner, who has spent years in prison in Tehran on what supporters say are politically motivated charges, posted on X: \u201cIranian Civil Society Says No to War!\u201d <\/p>\n
She and other Iranian activists, including fellow Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi and filmmakers Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof, all of whom have been pursued by the regime for their activism, wrote a joint opinion piece in France\u2019s Le Monde newspaper Monday calling for an end to the war \u2013 but they also demanded that Iran stop enrichment of uranium and that the regime step down. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis conflict not only destroys infrastructure and claims civilian lives but also constitutes a serious threat to the very foundations of human civilization,\u201d they wrote. <\/p>\n
In recent years, Israel has strengthened ties with Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran\u2019s deposed monarch. Pahlavi voiced support for Israel\u2019s actions, drawing praise from some in the Iranian diaspora and accusations of betrayal from others. <\/p>\n
\u201cSoon in Tehran,\u201d Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli posted on X on Friday, along with a picture of himself shaking hands with a smiling Pahlavi. Pahlavi told BBC News on Sunday that Israel\u2019s conflict with Iran was an opportunity to bring down the Iranian regime. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe ultimate solution is regime change,\u201d he said. \u201cNow, we have an opportunity, because this regime is at its weakest point. There\u2019s (a) window in which we can operate and hopefully liberate our country.\u201d <\/p>\n
His US-backed father had warm ties with Israel before he was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution in 1979. <\/p>\n
Israel has pounded Iran with strikes for four days, striking residential areas and the country\u2019s civilian infrastructure. At least 224 people have been killed in the country since hostilities began Friday, the health ministry said Sunday, according to state media. <\/p>\n
Israel has said it is doing so to stop the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear weapon and has targeted several of the country\u2019s nuclear sites, but civilians appear to have borne the brunt of the attacks. <\/p>\n
Iran has retaliated by firing 370 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel, the Israeli Prime Minister\u2019s Office said. By Monday morning, 24 people had been killed in Israel and 592 others had been wounded. <\/p>\n
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that \u201cthe residents of Tehran will pay the price,\u201d later clarifying that Israel didn\u2019t intend to harm civilians. <\/p>\n
Israeli officials \u201cdon\u2019t even pretend\u201d to care about the safety of Iranian civilians, said Azizi, the Iran expert. <\/p>\n
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for unity, in a statement released through state media. \u201cThe people of Iran must join hands and stand strong against the aggression that has been launched against us,\u201d Pezeshkian said, adding that the Iranians were \u201cnot the aggressors\u201d and defending Iran\u2019s right to a peaceful nuclear program. <\/p>\n
In its operation, Israel has taken out some of Iran\u2019s most senior military officials, including in the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Even if the leadership changes, it may not look like what Netanyahu hopes for, Iran experts said. <\/p>\n
\u201cRegime change is a possibility, just not the kind that Netanyahu has in mind,\u201d Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the Amwaj news outlet, wrote on X. \u201cAmong potential medium-term outcomes of Israel\u2019s war on Iran: military-led administration, possibly armed with nuclear weapons.\u201d <\/p>\n
Netanyahu\u2019s call for regime change by force has also alarmed other countries in the region. <\/p>\n
Speaking to the Paris-based journal Le Grand Continent, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, warned that \u201cwhen a country feels under attack, nationalism tends to intensify.\u201d <\/p>\n
Asked about Netanyahu\u2019s call for an uprising in Iran, Gargash said: \u201cThe region cannot be reshaped through force and confrontation. We may be able to resolve some problems in the short term, but this will lead to others that are at least as serious.\u201d. <\/p>\n
\u201cOf course, we\u2019re glad to see the leaders of this regime – whose hands are stained with the blood of our children – killed. But the death of ordinary people is painful.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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